26 June 2007

Space v face in an online social race

In a throwaway line in an interview the other day, Rupert Murdoch let slip a worry about MySpace, the online social networking site owned by his News Corp. Aren’t newspaper readers drifting off to MySpace? He was asked by the Wall Street Journal. “I wish they were. They ‘re all going to Facebook at the moment,” he replied.

Mr Murdoch was reflecting a common feeling in the febrile world of online social networking. Even a year ago, MySpace’s dizzying growth and popularity among young people had turned it into a social phenomenon. Business Week talked of the MySpace Generation – youngsters who exchanged messages, share photos and lived virtual lives on the site.

Now there is a new kid in town: Mark Zuckerberg, the 23-year-old founder of Facebook. Some wrote him off as an arrogant, hubristic youth last year when he turned down Yahoo’s $1.6bn offer for his business. As Facebook has spread from college kids to adults and draws in media industry admirers, he now seems a very smart young man.

It is a mug’s game predicting which social networking service will endure and which will fade. For a time, Friendster was favourite, before it had technology problems and was overtaken by MySpace; Orkut, Google’s highly-rated venture, became a hit only in Brazil; social networking sites for people at work, such as LinkedIn and ZoomInfo, started slowly but are growing rapidly.

But the fight between MySpace and Facebook is intriguing because they are not only rivals but opposites. MySpace is messy and Facebook is clean; MySpace is a Los Angeles media company and Facebook is a Silicon Valley technology outfit; MySpace aims to entertain while Facebook dubs itself a “social utility”. This is a contest of philosophy as much as number of users.

So here is this mug’s prediction. Although MySpace has four times as many users as Facebook at the moment, I think Mr Murdoch is right to worry. As Google showed by beating Yahoo and others with a different kind of search engine, elegant technology that gives people something they need is a very powerful thing.

MySpace is a free-for-all. You can adopt whatever identity you want and be friends with anyone from people who you know to pop starts and even corporate brands. You can decorate your page in bright colours, flirt with and swear at people and generally mix it up. “We look upon MySpace as the Wild West,” says Travis Katz, head of its international business.

That appeals to many and particularly, I guess, to teenagers. Looking at the multi-coloured and flashing pages that many users build on MySpace gives me a headache, as does perusing some of their messages to each other. Nor, however, would I like to live I a purple-painted room and plenty of teenagers choose to do so when their parents allow them.

MySpace increasingly operates like a traditional media company, albeit a youth-oriented one. It tries to offer its 105m users as much entertainment as possible – including a lot of professional content. Users can post their own songs and watch their friends’ videos but they are also offered film clips from Hollywood and songs from well-know bands.

Facebook, by contrast, is a much quieter and more private affair. Launched at the same time as MySpace in 2004, it had different origins: it was built to allow students at Harvard University to interact with others. The site design is simple and restrained and it feels less like entering a big club than a room with only familiar faces in it.

On most social networking sites, users can see the majority of other peoples’ profiles but on Facebook that figure is under 1 per cent. It is less a community than a set of small communities that hardly overlap. “Facebook is a representation of people’s lives. This is your real name and these are your real friends,” says Matt Cohler, its head of strategy.

The other distinctive thing about Facebook is the degree to which it is technologically driven. An algorithm sifts through all the information about things that a user’s friends are doing – whether linking with others or adding applications to their pages – and serves up a sample of their going-on. It is subtly done, as if little social announcements are chattering over the wires.

Perhaps MySpace will evolve into a place for teenagers seeking entertainment while Facebook appeals to adults who have less time to mess about. The latter may well prefer a service that links them to friends and contacts with the minimum of fuss. One-quarter of Facebook users are already aged 24 or over and they also represent the fastest growing segment.

The sites could complement each other, with people turning from MySpace to Facebook as they grow older. Or they could coexist, being used at different times by the same people, depending on what they want.

But I wonder if that is how people will behave. In practice, it requires a big investment of time and effort to keep up with such sites and people will probably choose one over another in the end. Given that, Facebook’s emphasis on utility rather than entertainment is smarter in the long term. It is nice to be entertained but it is more of a wrench to abandon something useful.

Social networking sites flourish when users have a good reason to stick around – and wither when their attention wanes. So Mr Murdoch should worry about loss of momentum at MySpace. Silicon Valley is full of young men who believe they know better than others. Mr Zuckerberg, however, could be right.

Written by John Gapper, john.gapper@ft.com, for the Financial Times, published on Monday June 18, 2007.

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

22 June 2007

Africa rising. No more the 'hopeless continent'

Two years ago, in the run-up to the Group of 8 summit meeting in Gleneagles, Scotland, the Commission for Africa advocated increased aid as a silver bullet for Africa’s development. According to the host of the summit, Africa was still the “hopeless continent”, a “scar on the conscience of the world.”

Since Gleneagles, economic growth in Africa has averaged over 5 percent annually – a step up from the dismal 1980’s and 1990’s when it managed little over two percent. And the number of conflicts in an exact corollary of the continent’s better economics – down by two-thirds from a peak of 12 in the late 1990’s.

But this improvement is not the result of aid. Much of the extra aid flowing to Africa is not new money; it is money saved on debt relief, and it has been slower in coming and with more strings than expected.

The international agenda has moved on, too. Interest in Africa has cooled as Iraq, Afghanistan and global warming have heated up.

Yet Africa is succeeding – not in spite of the international community’s apathy or unreliability, but because of it. It has forced African countries to become more self-reliant and to take responsibility. It has marked out the reformers from the laggards and the performers from the spectators.

Simple solutions, like more aid, will never work in Africa.

The continent is infinitely complex and increasingly diverse. You will find both homespun successes and entrenched failures.

Africa remains one of the most food-insecure parts of world. Two hundred fifty million Africans live in urban slums today, a figure expected to double by 2020. The continent accounts for nearly two-thirds of global HIV-AIDS cases. Less than one-quarter of those living in sub-Saharan Africa have access to electricity. Agricultural production is now just one-third of Asia’s level, after parity 50 years ago.

The figures are depressing. Yet what is remarkable – and largely ignored – is how Africa is moving forward despite these endemic problems.

I would cite five main reasons for this.

First, there have been two momentous governance shifts in Africa over the past 15 years – democracy and liberal economic reform. Twenty-five years ago, there were just three African democracies: Botswana, Senegal and Mauritius. Today more than 40 African countries hold regular multi-party elections. Some are far from perfect, but in the fight against political complacency and despotism, the right side is winning.

A second reason concerns the emergency of China and other new players, including India, Russia and Brazil, as forces for economic change on the continent.

China’s rising profile in Africa is perhaps the most significant development for the continent since the end of the Cold War. China’s (and Asia’s) industrial pre-eminence means that African development is unlikely to come from high-volume manufacturing. A combination of natural resource exploitation, agricultural self-sufficiency and high-value agro-exports, and the expansion of its unique range of service industries, including tourism, would therefore seem and to be the most likely and rewarding growth path for many African states.

To get there Africans must know what they want - and from beneficiation deals to technology and skills transfer – and can realistically achieve when they enter into foreign investor partnerships.

The arrival of China as a major African player also challenges the supremacy of the Western aid-development model. In 2005, China committed more than $8 billion in lending to Nigeria, Angola and Mozambique – a year when the World Bank spent $2.3 billion in all of Sub-Saharan Africa. Today Chinese companies are winning about half of all state-funded public works contracts in Africa. No wonder China’s trade with Africa has increased in just six years from $10 billion to $55.6 billion last year. All this highlights the importance for Africa of looking for development to where the money is – private capital.

A third reason relates to the end of the apartheid. South Africa’s democracy liberated its citizens and businesses alike. Since 1994, South African annual trade with Africa has increased fivefold to over R7 billion, while the investment stake of South African firms in Africa has increased by an estimated $1 billion per year.

A fourth success factor is that no longer does Africa wait on external sponsors to mediate an end to conflicts. This mold was broken during South Africa’s own transition 15 years ago, and the insistence of all protagonists on local brokerage. Regionally sponsored peace agreements are today the African norm, supported by African peacekeeping and peace-building mechanisms.

Finally, Africa is catching up on globalization. The continent’s share of global capital flows declined fivefold during the post-independence years to a level of just one percent at the start of this decade. But there is positive change. Foreign investment flows to Africa have recently doubled to $19 billion in 2006. Remittances from Africa’s disapora have increased to $8 billion annually, up from around $1 billion 15 years ago.

Fifty years ago, at independence, Ghana was richer than South Korea. At the time, the Asian country was depicted as a hopeless mess. Korea’s record – and Ghana’s recovery from no fewer than five military coups – shows that a good education and work ethic and a sound business environment can dramatically alter a country’s fortunes for the better.

Today, for every African failure there is a steady stream of successes, and for every autocrat, many more democrats. Sound domestic policy always counts more than external assistance in creating the conditions for growth, stability and prosperity.

More and more, that is the African norm. Failure is the deviation.

Nicky Oppenheimer is the chairman of De Beers.

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

21 June 2007

London's residential property is the most expensive in the world

"Over the next five years, we believe the trend of growing wealth and greater wealth concentration will continue" - Liam Bailey

In a survey of prime property across the globe London topped the list leaving jet-setter's favourites like Tokyo, Cannes and St Tropez in the shade with luxury pads in the English capital costing an average £2,300 per square foot.

In the poll of similar properties at the top end of the market in over 70 cities world-wide Monaco was ranked second - fat cats pay an average £2,190 per square foot in the wealthy principality.

New York was placed third, with prime property fetching an average price of £1,600 pounds per square foot, and Hong Kong was fourth, commanding £1,230.

The research unveiled in estate agent Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank's "Wealth Report 2007" points to the growing influence of high net worth individuals - defined as those with more than £5 million in inevitable assets - on the property market across the globe.

Elsewhere in Great Britain and Ireland, Dublin, Birmingham, Edinburgh and Manchester were identified as prime property locations.

They ranked 17, 19, 21 and 22 respectively, with values ranging from £320 to £470 per square foot.

Rapid economic development, together with the creation of new wealthy sections of society, had led to intense competition for the best apartments and villas in secure prime neighbourhoods - and boosted prices, according to the report.

Looking ahead, Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, said prime property would continue to outperform mainstream markets.

"Over the next five years, we believe the trend of growing wealth and greater wealth concentration will continue," he said.

He said up-and-coming key prime property locations included St Petersburg and Moscow in Russia, Delhi and Mumbai in India, as well as Guangzhou and Beijing in China.

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

Deconstructing Growth in South Africa - 30 May 2007

THE most striking feature of the gross domestic product (GDP) figures released on Tuesday was the growth notched up by the construction industry. The sector's output surged by a stellar 21.3% in real terms, far outcliping all the others.

The figure is quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised - in other words, it reflects what the construction sector's growth would be for a full year if the first quarter's performance was sustained. (All figures are reflected on that basis, unless otherwise stated.)

The huge construction number came after an already high 16.5% growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year.

Because the construction industry has such a low weighting in GDP - only about 3% - its massive growth added "only" 0.7 percentage points to the 4.7% overall economic growth rate in the first quarter. But that was a welcome addition during a period when many other sectors showed a slowdown in growth.

The impressive growth in construction is proof that the public sector's huge infrastructure spending programme is getting off the ground in a big way. It includes Eskom's investment in new power generating capacity, the Gautrain and other similar projects.

Bottlenecks

It's important to note that the public sector's infrastructure programme has taken up the slack when other sectors such as manufacturing and retail have slowed down. That was intended to be the case.

But the question is whether the public sector hasn't bunched too many projects together, which will result in bottlenecks and unsustainability of growth in the construction sector. The current account deficit will also take strain, as these projects are import intensive.

For years, government spoke about and planned infrastructure spending. But nothing happened and no-one believed that it was going to happen. Eskom, which years ago should have been investing in new generating capacity, is only now coming to the party.

It's a similar situation at Transnet, which for years promised to improve infrastructure without any real action.

Is the 21% real growth rate in construction sustainable? Probably not.

Lack of skills

Shortages of skills as well as materials will lead to bottlenecks in construction. A huge portion of Eskom and Transnet's spending will be on imports, which have to be sourced in markets where there already are shortages. The reason for the shortages of capital goods in foreign markets is because SA isn't the only emerging market embarking on a huge infrastructure spending programme.

But the spending on construction is vital to lift SA's economic growth potential. Without investment in ports, rail, roads and electricity, the economy won't be able to grow at the targeted 6% rate.

However, that doesn't mean there won't be some white elephants constructed, which add to the numbers now but will turn out to have been useless later. All the spending on soccer World Cup stadiums comes to mind; it's doubtful that all of these stadiums will be self-sustaining after the big event.

Another striking aspect of the sectoral breakdown in GDP is the contraction in the mining industry. Perceptions that SA's growth is benefiting from a commodities boom are entirely misplaced, as mining output contracted 7.8% in the first quarter.

What commodities boom?

It's difficult to explain the weak performance of the mining sector. One analyst says the first quarter figures compared with the fourth quarter figures usually dip, because of some leave schedules that should have gone through in December going through in January. This isn't taken into account in the seasonal adjustment. He says it's better to look at the year-on-year rate of change, rather than the quarterly figure.

But the year-on-year rate of growth in mining was a paltry 1.2%, which also flies in the face of the so-called commodities boom. Yet analysts expect a better performance in the quarters ahead, as new mining projects come on stream. Mining has a weighting of less than 6% of GDP.

The most important sector in the economy - finance, real estate and business services - put in a good performance with growth of 5.7%. This is down on the previous quarter, as was expected, given interest rate hikes. But the sector, with a share of almost 20% in the economy, contributed 1.1 percentage points to overall GDP growth.

The trouble with this sector playing such a big role in the economy is that it's highly skills intensive. Its capacity to absorb SA's massive pool of unskilled labour is limited yet it makes a very important contribution to overall economic growth.

SA like developed countries

In this shift away from sectors like manufacturing towards services, SA is a bit like the developed countries in the world. They underwent a process of deindustrialisation, where manufacturing increasingly shifted to the economies offering cheap labour.

One policy response to the shift would be for government to try to boost manufacturing and labour-absorbing sectors. It's hoped that government's long-awaited industrial policy - due for release this week - will do just that.

It must also be said that growth generated by the financial services sector isn't to be sniffed at, because it provides government with some of the revenue from which to pay social grants. In that way, the sector contributes to alleviating poverty.

These are a just few quick observations on the sectoral breakdown of the latest GDP figures.

This article appeared on www.fin24.co.za on 30.05.2007, written by Greta Steyn

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

09 May 2007

The price of art

The new boom has made art a more secure investment than property or shares, and collectors also get the chance to make history
Ben Lewis

Ben Lewis presented the Channel 4 documentary, "Why Do People Buy Art?" and the BBC4 series "Art Safari"

There is an enormous, unprecedented, apparently unstoppable but little-reported boom taking place in the art market. In March, at the Armory show, New York's trendsetting contemporary art fair, dealers sold virtually twice as much as they had in 2003 - $43m of art in four days. It is the same story in the auction rooms: contemporary art values rose 20 per cent last year, and the auction houses now make more money from contemporary work than they do from artworks of the mid-20th century or earlier. There are two ways of looking at this. You may conclude that there is now a lot more wonderful art about - and that we are living in a 21st-century version of quattrocento Florence - or you might see this as the art world's own version of the dotcom bubble.

The art market divides into various sectors, defined by the auction houses. In western fine art, the categories are "old masters," which means art of the 19th century and before; "modern," which is 20th-century art until roughly the late 1960s; and "contemporary," which is art made between last week and 40 years ago. Damien Hirst is a contemporary artist, but so are the great German painter Gerhard Richter, English master Francis Bacon and even Andy Warhol. It is a catch-all term which marks a dividing line between the established reputations of the modernists - Cézanne, Picasso, Matisse and so on - and the uncertain values of pop and conceptual art. It is not surprising that as time wears on, the great names of 1960s and 1970s art should leap in value. What is surprising are the vast sums being paid for recently made art.

The contemporary market further subdivides into two sectors - established talents and emerging artists. The entry-level rate nowadays for an oil painting by an emerging artist is £5,000-£15,000. Nevertheless, collectors are buying both emerging and established work by the shedload. In 1999, the work of the German photographer Andreas Gursky, famed for his large-scale vistas of globalisation, rose in value 3,000 per cent. In February 2002, Gursky's image of multiple rows of trainers sold in London for £432,750, making it the most expensive photograph ever taken. In May, a sculpture of a stuffed horse hanging from a ceiling, Ballad of Trotsky (1996), by the fashionable and witty Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, sold for $2m at auction. It had increased in value tenfold in two years. Gerhard Richter's paintings have quadrupled in value this century alone. His Wolkenstudie, Grün-Blau, which was estimated to be worth between £300,000 and £500,000, sold in 2002 for £1,986,650 ($3,029,820). Richter is particularly interesting as an example of the way work can sell far above estimate, proving, if it were necessary, that a work of art is worth whatever someone is prepared to pay for it. (The sale at a London auction this year of Tracey Emin's My Coffin for £80,000 seems like small fry by comparison, even though that was double its estimated value.)

Overall, the art business is estimated to have a value of around $22bn a year. Collectors buy their art from three sources. There are twice-yearly auctions of contemporary art held by Sotheby's, Christie's and several other auction houses. Here the auctioneer gets a commission worth 20 per cent of the price of the work sold. Then there are the many small private galleries in most major cities. They mark up the works they sell by 50 per cent. But the favourite places to buy art at the moment are the art fairs, notably the Armory show in New York, Art Basel in Switzerland, another Art Basel in Miami, and the new entrant in the field - the Frieze art fair in London, which takes place for the second time in October.

Until recently, Britain was considered a backwater in the world of contemporary art - a nation famed for its parsimony and old-fashioned taste. Now we can boast an art movement, Britart, which - with Damien Hirst, Tracey Emin and the Chapmans as its figureheads - is collected all over the world. In a survey in the French Beaux Art magazine, Hirst was voted the most important living artist by a group of market experts, art valuers and fair directors. For 20 years, Charles Saatchi has been setting trends for contemporary-art buying, and now other British dealers have joined the party. Last year, Frieze became our first major art fair dedicated to contemporary work and so immediate was its impact that this year it will be joined by two newcomers - the Zoo fair and scopeLondon. Superbly organised, Frieze drew galleries and buyers from all over the world. Meanwhile, at the last round of auctions in London, Christie's and Sotheby's broke their record for sales of contemporary art with receipts of £28m.

Once upon a time, art was cheap. In the first decade of the 20th century, dealers like the former boxer Soulier, Clovis Sagot and Berthe Weill bought oils by Picasso, Utrillo and Dufy for 30 francs each. But two decades later the great names of modernism had grown rich through their art, and prices for their work have risen ever since. The current boom in modern art is by no means the first. The last big one took place in the late 1980s. It was based around impressionists and modernists, but was driven by property prices. The taxes on high-value property sales in Japan led to tax-dodging deals in which undervalued property was bundled with expensive art. In America, businesses took advantage of the tax-deductible status of art purchases and formed their own collections or opened their own galleries. Then the stock market crashed, property prices fell, and so did the value of art.

This new boom is different from that of the 1980s. First, it is driven by private collectors, not corporations. Second, its focus is contemporary, not modernist, art. Third, it was precisely when share prices dipped and the dotcom bubble burst that the current art boom took off. The contemporary art market had been expanding in the early 1990s on the back of the dotcom bubble and everyone assumed it would burst with it. Instead, something odd happened: prices for art went up. As art consultant Robin Duthy explains, "The rich were shifting their money out of the stock market and into contemporary art." Today, while stock markets remain uncertain, contemporary art has become, perversely, a reliable investment.

New technology has made it as easy to invest in art as one would in stocks and shares. A number of art market entrepreneurs have developed websites that allow dealers to follow the ups and downs of the market. Sign up for a membership, type in the name of an artist or market sector, and you can see the latest auction prices. David Hoyland, a twentysomething from working-class Bradford who wears sharp Savile Row-ish suits, uses these websites to trade contemporary art like a broker buys and sells commodities. "Take Warhol," he told me. "If you have some money I would say to you, 'I'll buy a Warhol print for you, and I will guarantee to buy it off you in a year for 10 per cent more than you paid for it.'"

"Like the stock market, only prettier," I said. "Yes, but you're more likely to make money," he replied.

The first important British auction of contemporary art was held at Sotheby's in May 1997. The collection of Bernardo Nadal-Ginard was on the block. Nadal-Ginard, a Boston cardiologist, had been buying works considered to be the most "cutting-edge" items in galleries from the mid-1980s to the early 1990s. Such pieces rarely got tested at auction, and it is unlikely that they would have been consigned to such a public marketplace had this not been a forced sale (Nadal-Ginard had been convicted of embezzlement). About 100 works were auctioned, including pieces by Robert Gober, Matthew Barney, Kiki Smith and Jeff Koons. Subsequently Christie's and Sotheby's began holding regular contemporary art auctions - once a year in New York and once a year in London.

You do not have to be an expert to join in. Recently, I came across a trial issue of a magazine called Art Investor, aimed at art market novices. On page 62, there was an article which opened with this declaration: "For love or money - does it always have to be the former? Can't the material aspect play a role too? Yes it can, say the experts. An investment in art does not require a love and passion for the work of art. Art can indeed be a genuine alternative to capital and real estate… art is no longer only related to aesthetics and decoration."

The market has several features which reinforce the upward trend in prices and allow for trading practices that would long ago have been outlawed if they weren't operating under the flag of convenience known as "art" - that uplifting thing to look at that says something about the age in which we live and about the human condition itself.

It is a sellers' market. There are waiting lists not just for established talent but even for emerging artists. Demand far outstrips supply. The seller - the gallery-owner or dealer - is all-powerful. Gallerists don't have to sell the art, they have to decide who not to sell it to. Not any old flash Harry with a cheque-book can saunter in and buy a major work of art from a gallery, whether it is a Damien Hirst, a Takashi Murakami, a Matthew Barney or a Richard Serra. The gallery-owner seeks to place the work of art, which means deciding who is permitted to buy it. The rule is to make sure the work goes to the home of a respected collector or - better - a museum.

If a work of art goes into a good collection, its value and the value of the artist increases. The reverse is equally true, and what the gallerists want to avoid at all costs is someone buying the piece and putting it up for auction to make a profit (known as "flipping"). When this happens on a large scale, it can be a scandal. For example, Hans Grothe, a German property developer, had amassed a large number of photographs by the Düsseldorf school of photographers, which includes Andreas Gursky and Thomas Struth. Grothe had made a verbal agreement with the galleries representing these artists not to sell the work, except to an institution. Two years ago, he broke the promise, the market was flooded with Gurskys and Struths, and the value of their work dipped.

I recently asked the eccentric French gallerist Emmanuel Perrotin (who represents Maurizio Cattelan, Takashi Murakami and others) how I might persuade him to sell me a work by an artist currently in demand. The answer appears to be that, even if I were shockingly rich, I couldn't. "Sometimes it is embarrassing for us when we have 40 collectors waiting on work by an artist," Perrotin said. But if you are a multimillionaire art collector, if you are already a very good client of mine and you have bought many pieces over the years and not just from the artist that everyone wants, if you are a serious collector and if I can use your name to promote the artist again, you will be top of the list. It's not democratic at all. I'm sorry."

The new wealth of gallery-owners and contemporary artists has reinforced their hold on the market. Last November, following the public row between Charles Saatchi and Damien Hirst, Saatchi sold off a large part of his collection of Hirsts. They were bought by Jay Joplin, director of London's White Cube gallery and Damien Hirst's own dealer, for a reported £10m. The logic of the art market means that the collector had a vested interest in selling back to the gallery. Saatchi still owns Hirsts, and even if he didn't, why should he want to flood the market and allow prices to go through the floor? It would make it look like he had made a big mistake. Of course, it is not unusual in the art world for an artist and his gallery to attempt to buy back early work, or indeed to buy works back off a collector. The difference now is the scale. What the boom is doing is empowering a tiny elite of top artists and their galleries to control the sale of their work in an unprecedented way.

An American tax law allows you to donate a work of art to a museum in America and get the full market value of the work back as a tax deduction, up to the value of 30 per cent of your tax bill. This doesn't seem likely to accelerate a boom in contemporary art, because you only get the kickback if you donate. But the attorney Ralph Lerner, author of Art Law: the guide for collectors, investors, dealers and artists, explained to me the benefits of donating: "You buy a work of art for $1,000. Ten years later it is worth $10,000. You donate it to a museum and you get a tax rebate for the full market value of the work of art. That means the government has paid for your work of art, handed you some profit and paid for you to get a new work." But surely, I suggested, this is not as profitable as selling it on the open market. "Yes," Lerner concurred, "but sometimes the full market value is not what you are going to get on the open market. Often, the gallery who sold it to you doesn't want you to put it up for sale at auction. In addition, donations are the route to getting on to the boards of American museums and public art galleries. And getting a seat on one of those boards is the ultimate sign of social standing in America. Many collectors don't need the money, but do want invites to the parties."

The law offers other handy options too. If your work of art is worth much more than 30 per cent of your annual tax bill, you can donate percentages of it each year, up to a maximum of five years. This means that if you have a $15m Picasso, you just give away 20 per cent a year to a museum. The museum exhibits it for 20 per cent of the year, and you get to have it the rest. In addition, exhibiting it in a museum increases its value. If you have a number of works by one young artist, as many collectors do, then it pays to try to place one of those works in a museum, because it increases the value of your other pieces. Depending on how you look at it, this has either turned American museums into the best endowed art institutions in the world, or flooded them with second-rate work that they will ultimately only store in their basements. The British government is now considering introducing the same incentives to donate works of art over here. The director of the Tate, Nicholas Serota, is said to be a key advocate.

Such are the rarified mechanisms of the current market. Yet while they explain how art has become a highly lucrative and specialised investment commodity, they do not explain why. Why this commodity and not another? And why, especially, contemporary work? The art world likes to explain the boom in simple terms. There is less old art around and it is much more expensive. Even among the rich, few can now afford the impressionists. Yet there are many more affluent people who want to buy art of some kind. Contemporary art is available and, as art, it is rewarding

This is the standard line, and it is tosh. Although old masters and impressionists are rare, there is nothing to stop collectors collecting something else - pre-Columbian vases, classic cars, silverware and so on. And while the modernists are expensive, collectors might still prefer to buy their cheaper sketches and prints. But they don't. They do not want old art. They do not necessarily even want great art. They want new art. But why should the idea of the contemporary have become more valuable now, as it were, than it used to be? The answer is that by writing cheques, collectors have acquired a new sense of writing history.

In the old days, gallery-owners marketed their works of art with the claim that they possessed spiritual power. The artist was an impoverished holy man offering deep spiritual truths to all who gazed upon his work. Collectors of contemporary art saw themselves as charitable benefactors looking after poor struggling artists and gaining spiritual sustenance in the process. This old-school approach still motivates a handful of super-rich collectors, such as the Miami Beach entrepreneur Don Rubell and his wife Mera. They own around 5,000 works of contemporary art, the meaning of which they explained to me in almost religious terms: "The art affects one's life to such a degree that it develops a purity inside anyone who stays with it - it's not just decoration. The collectors become purified by the act of collecting art."

Yet, in today's art world, the work is no longer seriously presented as having spiritual power. Rather, it is sold as a piece of cultural history in the process of being made. New York art consultant Thea Westreich put it to me like this: "It's about an intuitive, intellectual, conceptual investigation into what it means to live in a particular time. And our time is enormously complex. Artists are thinking: what does this mean? And how do I express something of the moment?"

New Yorker Adam Lindemann is more typical of the new generation of collectors. He made his fortune with a string of Spanish-language radio stations and now applies the same principle to collecting. I visited him at home, where the walls are crammed with works by the artists that any top collector must have. There were photographs from Matthew Barney's Cremaster cycle, Takashi Murakami's zen manga-cartoons, a bust by Jeff Koons, and Sue Webster's Forever sign, made out of flashing lightbulbs. "They're the greatest hits, you know, like top 20 on the radio station," Lindemann said. "But what's most interesting to me is not so much the work of art as the theories, the personal reactions, and also the market reactions to the artist and to the work. Each object is a piece of contemporary culture; a piece of what's going on."

Collectors Raymond Learsy and Melva Bucksbaum have taken this fascination with the contemporary a step further by making explicit their own participation in it. I visited their stunning Tribeca loft, where they have themed works of art around the subject of 9/11. There was a larger than life bronze of a tumbling woman by Eric Fischl, and a large oil by Jennifer Bartlett of the towers disintegrating in a colourful abstract geometry. "You asked us why we collect contemporary art, and the answer is that it is a reflection of our lives," they told me. "The World Trade Centre is only eight blocks away, and we were here on that day; we saw the towers collapse and collecting contemporary art is our way of dealing with the events of that day."

Learsy and Bucksbaum had responded to catastrophe with connoisseurship. Yet their aim is not just to buy into history, but to anticipate it, collecting artists early in their career. Learsy said: "The exciting thing about collecting contemporary art is that there is no real body of validation. You can become part of the process of validation."

Thus an artist only becomes recognised as important once his or her work becomes seriously collected. By buying a work of art, and raising its price, the collector exerts an influence on history. Books and CDs are also part of cultural history, but anyone can buy the book or the CD. Works of art, on the other hand, are unique or published in very small editions, and collecting contemporary art gives the rich a power that no other purchase confers.

The French sociologist Pierre Bourdieu argued that in western society people trade in cultural capital in a manner analogous to the trade in goods. He meant that we acquire cultural items - a trendy wardrobe, a collection of great CDs - to make ourselves more valuable. Similarly, collectors like Learsy and Bucksbaum are analysing the cultural scene just as financiers analyse the market. They invest in pieces of cultural capital. If their predictions are correct, the works of art become historically significant and go up in value.

What we are experiencing now is a huge growth in the number of wealthy people who want to intervene in cultural history in this way. It is a new world, and one whose lifespan only a fool would dare to predict.

Will the work last and retain its value? Is the art worth the huge sums that are paid for it - between $1m and $3m for a work by Hirst, Warhol, Basquiat, Koons, Cattelan? Are the collectors buying things which will later be regarded as part of our history? Any cultural product is, of course, part of our cultural history. The question is: how significant a part?

On a purely quantifiable basis, we would have to conclude that contemporary art is not as significant as it once was, simply because there are more visual media around to pick from - photography, films, television, video games. These media play a bigger part in our culture than works of art. The art world would counter this by saying that artists are making far more intelligent, even philosophical comments on the world than console designers and television directors. But artists are, on the whole, not particularly well educated, nor is visual art a medium well suited to the examination of complex philosophical or moral problems, which usually require the precision of language. The art world also points to the rising number of people who go to art galleries. But having spent a lot of time in these places listening to other people's conversations, I have the impression that most of them are there out of curiosity rather than intellectual devotion. The contemporary art gallery is the modern version of the freak show, somewhere people go on a rainy afternoon to laugh and gawp. "Oh, is that art now?" they mutter, "I could do that."

The mistaken perception the art world has about the way everyone else perceives their art was exemplified by the fallout from the Momart warehouse fire in May, which destroyed around 100 artworks, many owned by Charles Saatchi, including pieces by Damien Hirst, Sarah Lucas, Tracey Emin and the Chapmans. The press chortled. At last Saatchi's art had got what it deserved. The art world seems to have been taken by surprise by the media's reaction to this disaster. They thought the media were on their side. They thought we liked Britart - after all, we had been reporting on it for more than ten years. The endless column inches devoted to Damien's formaldehyde, Marc Quinn's blood and Tracey Emin's bed allowed the dealers to point to the work's cultural and historical significance, and undoubtedly helped the huge international sales of these artists. But the media followed Britart because it was a good story, not because it was good. The story was about the mysterious art Svengali, Charles Saatchi; it was about foul-mouthed feminists and art that showed children with penises for noses. There was the British success story angle, and then the conflagration in which it all went up in smoke - what a great ending (at least in purely formal narrative terms)! The journalists put no special value on the works of art.

The way the Saatchi fire was talked about shows that the art world's theory of historical significance is wrong, and that soon many collectors will be getting their fingers burnt. If I gaze 30 years into the future I cannot imagine finding Damien Hirst's spin paintings anywhere but car boot sales.

But I may be proved wrong. The contemporary art market is only a market. We live in a world in which the rich have more leisure time and devote more of it to creative tasks. There would probably have to be another major world recession to force collectors to sell their vast collections for less than they paid for them, and that doesn't seem to be imminent. At the moment, the contemporary art market is a self-fulfilling prophecy in which market value and cultural value have dissolved into each other.

Published in the October 2004 edition of Prospect Magazine.

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

02 April 2007

Investment Guru finds value in South Africa


9 February 2007

I realized about halfway through my recent trip that it had been some time since I was in an emerging-market country. I have been to over 50 countries over the past 20 years, but recently most of my travels have been to Europe and Canada, with the occasional vacation trip to Mexico.

As I observed South Africa, it was forcefully brought home to me that there is more to the emerging-market story than China, India and Brazil. There are any number of countries that are seeing robust growth and contributing to the world economy. It was reported at Davos this year that for the first time the developing world has a larger share of world GDP than the developed world.

Here we focus on an emerging-market country that does not make as much news as it should.

The mood among those I talked with in South Africa in the early 1990s, when I was traveling often to South Africa, was quite pessimistic. The economy was not good, due to international economic sanctions stemming from worldwide protests over the policy of apartheid. Changes and elections were coming, and it was not clear what would happen.

The contrast today is amazing.

World-class cities; cranes everywhere
There are construction cranes everywhere in the four cities I visited: Johannesburg, Pretoria, Durban and Cape Town. Twelve years ago the 30 miles from Johannesburg to Pretoria was mostly agricultural land. Today it is one big city, with offices, malls and homes lining the freeway.

Johannesburg is a world-class city, on a par with New York or London or any major city in terms of facilities, shops, infrastructure ... and traffic. There are new shopping malls all over, and the stores are busy. The restaurants are excellent. The hotels I stayed in and spoke at were excellent and modern. The Sandton area is particularly pleasant.

Durban is a tropical jewel on the Indian Ocean. Again, there was construction everywhere - a green, verdant city of a million people, with modern roads and great weather.

I have been to Sydney, Vancouver and San Francisco. I love all of them. But for my money, Cape Town is the most beautiful city I have been to. Amazing mountains, blue water harbors, white sand beaches, with wineries nestled in among the mountains and valleys. The Waterfront area, where I stayed, is fun and vibrant.

Again, an amazing amount of construction everywhere, especially in the Waterfront area, as investors from Dubai are pouring huge sums of money into creating a massive residential/business/ retail/restaurant development. There are several similar, quite large developments going up in different parts of Cape Town.

Value for money
I ate dinner one Friday night at a restaurant called Baia at the Waterfront. I find I really love the better South African chardonnays. My friends know I am something of a chardonnay snob. I like the better California wineries.

I was pleasantly surprised to find more than a few South African chards the equal of their US counterparts, but at a third to half the price for the same level of quality. (I should note that a decent chardonnay in London or Europe is twice the US price.)

Two of us had the best chardonnay in the restaurant and one of the better meals I have had in a long time, and the bill was less than $100. The next day my partner, Prieur du Plessis, informed me that Baia was one of the most expensive restaurants in town.

By way of comparison, you can easily spend two to three times that at a comparable restaurant in Dallas, and four to five times that in New York. Forget London.

I began to ask about the bills for food, drinks and such for the rest of the trip. The country was uniformly about half what I would pay in Texas for the same quality.

I stayed in a very nice five-star hotel (The Commodore) for six nights for less than $1 000, including several meals, laundry and my bar tab. Their walk-up price was much higher, but clearly you can get deals, and it was tourist season at that. The service was terrific and uniformly delivered with smiles.

The exceptionally nice private game reserve (Itaga) we stayed at when I first arrived, trying to get over jet lag, was only a few hundred a night, including meals, wine and game runs. In short, after having been to London and Europe for my last few overseas trips, South Africa seemed like a bargain.

Optimism fuelled by growth
And it was not just the people I spoke to that were optimistic. Grant Thornton (a large international accounting firm) did a survey in the 30 countries in which they do business. The four countries with the most optimism and confidence were India, Ireland, South Africa and mainland China.

Why such confidence? I think there are several reasons. The economy has been growing at a reported almost 5% a year for the past several years, which is quite strong. They have had 32 consecutive quarters of positive growth.

But the official figures may understate the reality by a significant amount. If you look at the VAT (value-added tax) receipts, as well as other tax figures, some economists estimate the economy may be growing by 7% or more. Why the difference?

There is a large "informal" economy in South Africa. While much of the income may not be reported, when something is bought and sold in the retail sectors, taxes are collected.

The stock market has grown by over 25%, 47% and 41% for the last three years. Such a bull run is always a boost to confidence. But there are also some real fundamentals underlying the emerging-market bull markets.

South Africa has a strong commodity sector, with numerous commodities and not just gold. JP Morgan thinks that earnings growth for South African companies, even adjusting for some anomalies, will be 20% this year, which should mean another good year for their local markets.

This link between commodities and stock market prices is reflected not just in their stock market, but in emerging markets worldwide. Look at the close correlation for the last 10 years between the prices of commodities and the emerging-market equity index. I think this rather clearly shows the link between the recent rise in commodity prices and emerging markets. It is more than just a China story.

Football as an economic driver
The attention paid to football (or soccer in the United States) is rising to fever pitch in South Africa. And for good reason: they will host the World Cup in 2010. They expect some 3 000 000 fans to show up.

The government is using the occasion to spend some R400-billion (a little over US$50-billion) on all sorts of infrastructure projects. They are doubling the size of the major airports, which had already been significantly improved. Walking past the construction at the Johannesburg airport, you have to be impressed with the size of it.

New roads and other forms of infrastructure are being added to prepare for the influx, but it will have the added effect of making the country more competitive, just as infrastructure in China has been a boost to that country, and a lack of infrastructure has limited India.

The World Cup will also be a boost to tourism, already one of the most important sectors of the economy. Cape Town is becoming an international destination for vacations and conferences. The growth in tourism has been strong, showing 20% growth last year from 2005. 2006 was a record year.

A deal-doing financial centre
Interestingly, 75% of the traffic reported in the tourism growth is from Africa and the Middle East. While a lot of the people are vacationers, I think a goodly portion are businessmen and women from all over sub-Saharan Africa who look to South Africa as a deal-doing financial centre.

South Africa has a quite strong, very competent and growing financial services sector that is a magnet for entrepreneurs from all over Africa seeking to find capital. South Africa also has a strong entrepreneurial class which is the base for much of the new business and development, not just in South Africa but in all of Africa.

The rest of the world rightly sees South Africa as the place to launch into the rest of Africa.

Problems common to emerging markets
Are there problems in South Africa? Of course, and some of them are quite serious. But that is the case in nearly all (I cannot think of an exception) emerging-market economies.

While the overall crime rate is dropping, it is still far too high. Some rather high-profile crimes of late have resulted in a strong outcry for serious change.

Corruption is an issue, but that is the case in almost every emerging-market country. The high levels of poverty are evident. Although employment is growing and more and more of the poor are being brought into the economy, there is still a lot of room for progress.

The telecommunications infrastructure is hampered by a lack of serious competition. Access to the internet is limited in many areas, and it is really slow where it does exist. This will improve in the coming years, but it is a serious handicap to business. There are power shortages and the need for more power-generation plants to keep up with the growth.

But all these areas are (mostly) going to improve.

Potential in African farmland
I see a lot of opportunity in South Africa in particular and Africa in general. Let's look at one area where there may be more than a little potential in the future.

I think there is deep long-term value in African (not just South African) farmland. Right now, given the nature of US and European subsidies to agriculture, it is hard for developing-world farmers to compete. But that will change in the next decade.

As I have written before, "Old Europe" and the US are going to come under intense government budgetary pressure due to the high levels of pension and medical costs they have promised their retiring boomers. Europe is particularly vulnerable.

Quite simply, Europe cannot afford to keep the pension promises they have made and pay for any other normal government expenses without raising taxes. Except that they already have economy-stifling high taxes.

Budgets are going to have to be cut in other areas. At some point, sooner rather than later, agricultural subsidies are going to come under pressure, as politicians must decide where to find the money to pay for the promised pensions and health care. There are more voters who are older and on pensions than there are farmers.

I can count votes, and it is not hard to predict the result. It will be with a lot of fighting, but in the medium run the agricultural subsidies in Europe are going to have to go.

When the writing is clearly on the wall, Europe will start to negotiate on those subsidies, trying to get something for what they will have no choice but to give. Part of that will be to reduce US subsidies as well.

Africa will become a breadbasket for much of Asia. With China pressed for water and much of its agricultural land being used for development, China will need to import more food. And as the rest of the world becomes more developed, there will be an increased demand for meat, which means an even bigger demand for feed grains for livestock. The growing use of ethanol is increasing demand for corn, absorbing more of the world's land use for energy corn rather than for food.

The simple fact is that as the world grows more prosperous we are going to need more grain and other foods. Where is the land we are going to need to feed the world? There is an abundance in Africa, along with the needed water and labor.

And as African countries upgrade their infrastructure, it will improve the ability of farmers to get their grains to market at profitable levels.

There is much to like about emerging markets. That is where a great deal of the real potential growth in the coming decades will be. And South Africa will be one of the better stories. If you are not doing business there already, you should ask yourself, why not?

This is an edited version of an article published in the 9 February 2007 issue of John Mauldin's free weekly investment e-letter, Thoughts from the Frontline.

Mauldin is president of Millennium Wave Investments. A recognized expert on investment issues, he is a frequent contributor to financial publications such as the Financial Times, and a frequent guest on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. His book "Bull's Eye Investing" made it onto the New York times best seller list. In his latest book, Just One Thing, "twelve of the world's best investors reveal the one strategy you can't overlook".

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

South Africa creates more jobs, better jobs

South Africa's economy is creating more jobs, and jobs of higher quality, than ever before, according to Statistics SA's latest labour force survey.

The survey, released on Thursday, shows both a modest decline in unemployment between September 2005 and September 2006 as well as - as Business Report puts it - "a number of encouraging longer-term trends".

South Africa's official unemployment rate decreased to 25.5% in September 2006, down from 26.7% a year previously, with 500 000 new jobs being created.

And according to Stats SA's deputy director-general for population and social statistics, Kefiloe Masiteng, South Africa's formal sector (excluding agriculture) was the main driver, accounting for 1.4-million of the 1.6-million new jobs created in the five years to last September.

There was also a drop in the number of unemployed South Africans in the year to September, from 4.4-million to 4.3-million, as well as a decline of almost 100 000 in the number of discouraged work-seekers.

This saw the percentage of working-age South Africans with jobs improve from 41.1% to 42.7% - despite the increase in the number of people in the market for jobs.

South Africa's labour force grew from 16.7-million to 17.1-million in September 2006 as the working age population (15- to 65-year-olds) rose from 29.6-million to 30-million.

In all, the number of South Africans with jobs rose from 12.3-million to 12.8-million. Of this number, 8.4-million were in the formal sector (excluding agriculture), 2.4-million in the informal sector, about 1-million in agriculture and about 886 000 in domestic work.

T-Sec economist Mike Schussler told Business Report that the jobs total was the highest in the country's history.

"The strongest growth was in the formal sector, which is encouraging because formally employed workers are more likely to have a constant salary and a pension or provident fund," Schussler added.

Lagging economic growth
Nonetheless, Business Report states, the growth in jobs still laggs behind the country's economic growth rate.

South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by a higher than expected 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2006 as the economy notched up its 33rd quarter of uninterrupted growth since 1998 - the longest upswing in the country's history.

Real annual gross domestic product increased by 5% in 2006, following growth of 5.1% in 2005.

The government is busy fine-tuning and implementing a strategy - known as the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (Asgi-SA) - to accelerate the country's growth rate and make sure that this growth is accompanied by job creation.

According to Masiteng, the country's trade industry (including the wholesale and retail sectors) accounted for 23.9% of the total increase in employment, the single largest contribution by any industry. The industry currently employs more than 3-million people.

The community and social services industry, which employs 2.3-million people, was the second largest contributor to total employment at 18.1%. Manufacturing, which employs 1.7-million workers, accounted for the third largest share at 13.6%.

Stats SA's labour force survey is based on the responses of approximately 67 000 working age adults in over 30 000 households across the country.

SouthAfrica.info reporter – 30 March 2007

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

Spain, Ireland and threats to the property boom

There are two phases in an asset price bubble that repeat themselves with clockwork regularity. The first is the phase of the bogus economic theory. I am sure you heard the one about the paradigm shift due to the more widespread sharing of credit risk; or the one about the profits/wages ratio rising indefinitely.
The second phase is a prolonged state of denial.
In the US subprime mortgage bubble, we are now in phase two. It is difficult to explain rationally why anyone would want to give out large mortgages to people with no credit rating, or why a bank would want to give out interest-only mortgages at more than 100 per cent of a property’s value to anybody. Most of those products are based on irrational expectations by lenders and borrowers.
The European Union is a little behind the US when it comes to such crazy financial innovation, but only a little. There is a subprime mortgage industry in some markets, such as the UK and Spain. You can also find interest-only mortgages.
Unsurprisingly, these are also the markets that have seen the strongest increases in property prices over the past 10 years. The Europeans are still in phase one of the bubble. The bogus economic theory from Spain is that large immigration can maintain a construction boom indefinitely.
Let us just look at some statistics. In Spain, the construction and housing sector accounts for 18.5 per cent of gross domestic product, about twice as high as the eurozone average, according to the latest data from the EU’s Ameco database. The comparable figure for Germany is 8.7 per cent. The justification given for this increase are: a net inflow of immigrants, many from Latin America, who find it easier to purchase, rather than rent Spanish property; changes in the Spanish way of life, as young people leave homes earlier than they used to; and Spain’s continued popularity amongst sun-loving northern Europeans. In other words, the Spain-is-special-crowd argues this is a structural boom, not a bubble. They claim that Spain’s property market can grow at faster rates for longer than most other European markets.
I do not want to dismiss all of these points. The trouble is that these merely tell us why the bubble happened in the first place, not why the path should be sustainable. In Spain, the average price of a square meter of residential property went up from about under €700 in 1997 to just under €2,000 at the end of last year – up threefold. House price growth has moderated more recently – from year-on-year growth of more than 15 per cent two years ago to more than 10 per cent now. It is true that Spain still has an extremely low level of mortgage defaults compared with the US. It is also true that Spanish mortgage banks are relatively flexible in terms of their willingness to refinance loans. Then again, Spain is in a different phase in the housing boom-bust cycle. Spain is today where the US was approximately a year ago.
In Spain, most mortgages are variable-rate, so the rise in short-term market interest rates to more than 4 per cent is beginning to have an effect on the Spanish housing sector. Monetary statistics tell us that the boom in European mortgage lending is slowly receding but this process still has some way to go. If, as a likely consequence of the subprime mortgage crises in the US, there is a global reappraisal of the price of risk, Spain would be hit by a double whammy – higher rates and higher spreads.
Now since 18.5 per cent of the Spanish economy is housing-related, a gradual convergence towards the eurozone average would seriously weigh on economic performance for a long period. Post-unification Germany experienced flat house prices for 15 years and a depression in the construction industry.
Spain has one of the lowest rates of productivity growth in the EU. The rest of the economy may not be strong enough to fill the gap left open by construction. It does not take much imagination to see that a perfect storm is building up. The idea that Latin American immigrants will continue to jump on the property ladder under these circumstances and rescue the housing market is a little optimistic. While it is true that there has been a structural shift from a conservative to a more liberal society, such shifts end at some point. And Germany and British homebuyers may eventually find alternative and better priced homes in other parts of the Mediterranean. The explanations of the past cannot be extrapolated.
Another example is Ireland. In Ireland, the GDP share of construction and housing is even higher, at 20.7 per cent. While the performance of the Irish economy during the past few decades was remarkable, there are some deep underlying structural problems that are now surfacing. In particular, Ireland has been fast losing competitiveness within the eurozone – not a subject that has been talked about much outside Ireland recently. With interest rates rising and a slow return to sanity in the financial sector Ireland is going down the same route as Spain, perhaps only faster.
The US housing recession is not over yet. In the past the correlation between US and European property price movements has been extremely high. If the transatlantic tsunami comes, it is perhaps best to avoid some of Europe’s western coastline states for a while.


Written by Wolfgang Munchau for the Financial Times, published on Monday March 19, 2007.

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

03 March 2007

New reactors across the globe: A nuclear power Renaissance

With concerns about global warming and energy security on the rise, countries the world over are taking a new look at nuclear energy. Some are building new reactors as fast as they can.

They are coming from everywhere in Australia; shirt-sleeved workers from every corner of the continent heading to a remote stretch of the South Australian desert. There is no water, and not much of anything else either. But the Olympic Dam mine is located here. And the mine is hiring.

The company currently employs about 700 miners, who have already dug several kilometers of tunnels under the desert. The area is so bone dry that drinking water must be pumped through a system of pipes from a distant spring. Recently, there has even been talk of building a desalination plant. After all, uranium mining requires water -- lots of it -- and Australia wants to remain the world's second largest supplier after Canada.

The explanation for the government's enthusiasm for nuclear power can be found in a report by nuclear physicist and former IT manger Ziggy Switkowski. As if on cue, he enthuses about the need for more nuclear power plants: Australia must start building reactors so that the first one can be completed in 2020. If a concerted effort is made, another 25 could be online by mid-century. On the one hand, this would help the country improve its poor record of carbon dioxide emissions. On the other, it would allow Australia to tap an almost inexhaustible source of energy; the country possesses more than 38 percent of the world's accessible uranium reserves.

The international atomic energy lobby loves such talk. Almost 21 years after the Chernobyl disaster, and just a couple months after the most recent breakdown at Sweden's Forsmark reactor last July, the risks associated with nuclear power are largely fading into the background. So too are questions about the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and atomic weapons. The industry, in short, is preparing for a new boom.

Plans for more nuclear plants

Currently there are 435 atomic reactors generating electricity in 31 countries across the globe. They fill 6.5 percent of the world's total energy demand and use close to 70,000 tons of enriched uranium per year. Atomic plants produce one-sixth of the total electricity supply -- roughly on par with hydropower.

That number may soon rocket upwards. At present, 29 nuclear power plants are under construction and there are concrete plans to build another 64. Another 158 are under consideration. On the other end of the equation, only six are slowly being shut down in preparation for decommissioning. In response to the growing demand, the price for uranium has increased seven-fold since 2002 and now sells for $72 per pound (454 grams). The fact that no final storage place exists for highly radioactive waste is considered to be but a secondary problem. Indeed, the only terminal repository apparently free from political opposition is that in Finland's Eurajoki where such a site is now under construction. There, nuclear waste will be stored at a maximum depth of 520 meters in shafts bored deep into the granite bedrock.

The main obstacle to the construction of nuclear power plants is no longer the anti-nuclear power lobby, but the huge costs of building them. Whereas in 1970 a brand new reactor cost $400 million, a plant now runs as much as 10 times higher. In the last three decades the nuclear power industry has received subsidies of about $1 billion -- the electricity generated may be clean from a global warming point of view, but it's not cheap.

Nonetheless, power plant construction companies are hoping for a renaissance. E.on has applied to build a new plant in Romania's Cernavoda and Siemens expects orders to triple in the next five years. General Electric too expects a number of new reactors to be built within the next decade, says Ferdinando Beccalli-Falco, a GE manager.

Indeed, a lots of companies stand to benefit. The industry is celebrating the "strategic shift" and preparing for a boom with mergers en vogue. Japan's Toshiba has acquired US-based Westinghouse, General Electric is working together with Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy is flirting with the Franco-German global market leader Areva NP, in which Siemens holds a stake.

Admiration of France

Until now, France has been virtually alone in its reliance on nuclear technology: Eighty percent of its domestically produced power comes from nuclear plants. The 59 plants allow the country to be mostly self-sufficient, and now this strategy is once again being held up as an example.

Lithuania, for example, urgently wants to replace its aging Ignalina nuclear reactor. Doing so would allow the country to decrease its dependence on Russia, but the price tag is some 3 billion. Ukraine also wants to build more nuclear power plants in order to increase its self-sufficiency, despite the trauma of Chernobyl. Bulgaria and the Czech Republic are both discussing building two new nuclear reactors each.

Poland is considering building a nuclear plant after 2020 since its domestic coal-fired power plants could soon run afoul of EU regulations. Next year the EU wants to tighten the emissions requirements for such polluters. Sites under consideration include Gryfino and Klempicz near Posnan, both of which are close to the German border.

Britain's Labour government wants to prepare the way for new atomic power plants by easing the approval process; many of its aging coal-fired power plants will have to close as a result of new EU standards. Gas-fired plants could help to close the gap, but Europe's two most important suppliers, Russia's Gazprom and Algeria's state-owned Sonatrach, in August signed an agreement that has aroused suspicions in London and Brussels that they will create a cartel similar to OPEC.

EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso adroitly side-stepped the issue last Wednesday when announcing the EU's new energy strategy. Germany is joined by a number of other EU countries in their skepticism toward nuclear power. But he did not conceal his committee's sympathy for atomic power, citing both environmental reasons and issues related to securing Europe's energy supply. Canada and Australia, the two most significant uranium suppliers, are reliable partners. Other suppliers include Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, Namibia and Niger. Kazakhstan wants to surpass Canada as the world's leading uranium supplier by 2010, which explains why French, Chinese and Japanese companies are racing to invest there.

India is considering building 19 new reactors, while China wants to construct at least 63 facilities that will be able to supply 50 giga-watts of power. In emerging market Indonesia a single, very modest, nuclear reactor will go online in 2011. In contrast the US is talking about building more than 20 new plants after a 20-year construction moratorium. Washington is providing tax incentives for power plant operators and it also wants to ease the process of obtaining the required permits.

But who is going to pay?

President George W. Bush already enthuses about a "Global Nuclear Energy Partnership" to foster the use of nuclear power while also monitoring to ensure that the technology is not misused by North Korea, Iran or al-Qaida. The US has budgeted $250 million to support the partnership, and the Hill & Knowlton public relations company, which worked for the government during the first Gulf war, has already launched a PR campaign to promote nuclear power.

The need for advertising seems unavoidable, since even the most enthusiastic supporters of the new atomic era cannot deny that it brings with it the same old risks. No one can rule out a meltdown. And no one can guarantee that civilian nuclear research won't be misused. Furthermore, no one knows who is going to pay for all the new facilities.

Moscow wants to build about 30 new reactors, in part because Gazprom doesn't want to sell natural gas on the domestic market at low prices. The Kremlin speculates that it will be able to obtain $30 billion from foreign investors to fund their construction, but this money is not likely to appear soon.

President Putin has called for the former superpower to take a "giant leap" by expanding its nuclear energy sector, but at present it only has one factory capable of manufacturing turbines and reactors. Consequently, Russia can only build one new nuclear power plant every three years. On the other hand, Russia also wants to sell nuclear technology abroad at discount prices, charging roughly 30 percent less than France for its reactors.

Despite the lofty ambitions and impressive figures, the fact remains that 1.6 billion people still do not have access to electricity, while 2.4 billion are forced to meet their energy needs with wood, straw or manure. In this respect, Steve Kidd, the director of strategy and research at London's World Nuclear Association, could be correct. In the nuclear industry, Kidd says, many such grandiose plans often turn out to be delusional.

Written by Rudiger Falksohn for Der Spiegel, published January 16, 2007

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com

26 January 2007

Google vs. Microsoft

THE Information Technology industry is all about wars between companies and individuals. These tech wars have become boring to some people and just the mention of a tech war will cause others to take up arms.

Mentioning Google vs Microsoft is one of those topics that make some people think of withdrawing their savings and sticking under the mattress. But hang-on; don't withdraw your precious savings just yet; even though Google and Microsoft are at war, it is more of a "Cold War", and this type of war is not necessarily bad.

If not for the Cold War between the USA and USSR, Yuri Gagarin wouldn't have been the first human in space, and Neil Armstrong would never have walked on the moon.

The future of computer software

Google has broadened its focus. It is not just an internet search engine anymore, the company now provide users with free e-mail, desktop applications and online text and spreadsheet editing.

The text and spreadsheet editing is probably one of Google's boldest moves to date. They have wandered into the domain that Microsoft controlled for the best part of the last 10 years and what promises to be the future of computing.

As Internet accessibility increased so did the amount of applications available. Software companies have shifted their focus to provide more applications and services on the internet.

To draft a letter a decade ago we were forced to buy software like Word (or even WordPerfect at that time). This is no longer the case, with faster broadband speeds making it possible for Google to provide applications like online text editors, and other online services.

How does it affect Microsoft?

Microsoft is being driven to move away from their main business and provide consumers with online tools and services. As with everything from Microsoft they are doing it with a bang.

Bill Gates announced in the end of 2005 that Microsoft is undertaking a major strategic shift towards providing more internet-based services.

Microsoft moved away from their MSN network across to Windows Live! And with the launch of Windows Vista they are increasing the support for Windows Live. Every online tool and service within Vista is closely linked to Windows Live and Office Live.

Microsoft didn't stand a chance competing against Google when it came to search engines, but when it comes to online services it has the advantage. We have to remember that Microsoft has Windows, and with Vista closely integrated with Windows Live, Google is bound to suffer some casualties and stands to lose a large share of the market.

There are tech wars that are worth looking into, and as with the Cold War where two nations pushed one another to become more advanced, the same will happen between Google and Microsoft.

We will have a loser in the end, but we can always remember that the one that did win the war would not have been pushed to the top, if it was not for the other.

Written by Johan Brink and published on www.fin24.co.za on 26.01.2007

Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com