China projects gradual slowdown
Central bank expects 8.9% growth for ’06 after 9.9% last year.
CHINA’S ECONOMIC growth is expected to slow to 8.9% this year while consumer prices will rise about 2%, the central bank’s research department said in a report published in March.
The report, carried in the China Securities Journal, predicted gross domestic product would grow 9.2% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier, 9% during the second quarter, 8.9% in the third and 8.7% during the fourth. It expects consumer prices to rise 1.5%, 2.1%, 2.1% and 2% for each quarter, compared with the comparable quarters a year earlier.
China’s GDP grew 9.9% last year, while consumer prices rose 1.8%.
The forecasts assume the global economy will grow 4.3% this year, China’s fiscal expenditure will rise 12% and China’s interest rates will remain at current levels, the report said.
“Generally speaking, China’s GDP growth will slow down gradually in the future, but will remain at a relatively high level,” it said. “There won’t be major fluctuations in consumer prices in the future, and the growth will be relatively stable.”
China’s fixed-asset investment will continue to grow at a relatively rapid pace, which may put upward pressure on the prices of producer goods and raw materials, it said.
However, overcapacity in various sectors, such s steel, cement, coke and automotive, will exert some downward pressure on consumer prices, it said. The government should take measures to expand domestic demand and set a high entry level for certain sectors, it said, adding that commercial banks should strictly control lending to sectors with overcapacity to minimize financial risks.
Meanwhile, China’s National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its Web site yesterday that value-added industrial output in February rose 20.1% from the same month last year to 547.3 billion yuan ($68.16 billion).
China’s industrial output for the first two months this year rose 16.2% to 1.111 trillion yuan, the National Bureau of Statistics said earlier this month. The country’s export-delivery value rose 29% in February to 370.4 billion yuan, and was up 24.2% at 745.4 billion yaun in the first two months, it said.
Output of coal, electricity and petroleum rose steadily in the first two months, while steel, construction materials and nonferrous metals’ output growth also rose, the bureau said.
Chinese coal output in January and February was 266 million metric tons, up 9.6% from the year-earlier period, it said. China’s electricity output for the two months rose 11.2% to 402.5 billion kilowatt-hours.
Contributions by Zheng Jin and Zheng Xiaolu for WALL STREET JOURNAL – Asia, Tuesday, March 28, 2006.
Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com
CHINA’S ECONOMIC growth is expected to slow to 8.9% this year while consumer prices will rise about 2%, the central bank’s research department said in a report published in March.
The report, carried in the China Securities Journal, predicted gross domestic product would grow 9.2% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier, 9% during the second quarter, 8.9% in the third and 8.7% during the fourth. It expects consumer prices to rise 1.5%, 2.1%, 2.1% and 2% for each quarter, compared with the comparable quarters a year earlier.
China’s GDP grew 9.9% last year, while consumer prices rose 1.8%.
The forecasts assume the global economy will grow 4.3% this year, China’s fiscal expenditure will rise 12% and China’s interest rates will remain at current levels, the report said.
“Generally speaking, China’s GDP growth will slow down gradually in the future, but will remain at a relatively high level,” it said. “There won’t be major fluctuations in consumer prices in the future, and the growth will be relatively stable.”
China’s fixed-asset investment will continue to grow at a relatively rapid pace, which may put upward pressure on the prices of producer goods and raw materials, it said.
However, overcapacity in various sectors, such s steel, cement, coke and automotive, will exert some downward pressure on consumer prices, it said. The government should take measures to expand domestic demand and set a high entry level for certain sectors, it said, adding that commercial banks should strictly control lending to sectors with overcapacity to minimize financial risks.
Meanwhile, China’s National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its Web site yesterday that value-added industrial output in February rose 20.1% from the same month last year to 547.3 billion yuan ($68.16 billion).
China’s industrial output for the first two months this year rose 16.2% to 1.111 trillion yuan, the National Bureau of Statistics said earlier this month. The country’s export-delivery value rose 29% in February to 370.4 billion yuan, and was up 24.2% at 745.4 billion yaun in the first two months, it said.
Output of coal, electricity and petroleum rose steadily in the first two months, while steel, construction materials and nonferrous metals’ output growth also rose, the bureau said.
Chinese coal output in January and February was 266 million metric tons, up 9.6% from the year-earlier period, it said. China’s electricity output for the two months rose 11.2% to 402.5 billion kilowatt-hours.
Contributions by Zheng Jin and Zheng Xiaolu for WALL STREET JOURNAL – Asia, Tuesday, March 28, 2006.
Property in Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa on http://www.hotpropertyincapetown.com
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